Tuesday, May 21, 2013

The Pre-Pre-Season NCAA Basketball Top 15

Kentucky's #1 Recruiting Class of 2013

The upcoming college basketball season can not come soon enough.  This past March Madness had everything we could ask for - Overtime thrillers (i.e. Michigan vs. Kansas, Sweet 16), Cinderellas (i.e. Florida Gulf Coast, La Salle, and Wichita State) and young players proving to be superstars (i.e. Trey Burke, Russ Smith). It also had the heartbreaks - as a life long Michigan State Spartan, it was very, very, VERY rough watching Sparty leave the Dance early and the Michigan Wolverines almost win a National Title.  With one of the best recruiting classes entering the season in a long, long time, the entire field of 67 will shake up giving us one of the best seasons of college basketball we have saw in years.

With that said, here is my Top 15 teams coming into the 2013-2014 season.

15. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Starting out my Top 15 are the OSU Cowboys out of the mediocre Big 12.  Although they failed to make it out of the round of 64, falling to 12-seed Oregon, I believe they will bounce back stronger than ever to give Kansas a run for the conference title.  Behind play-makers like Sophomore Marcus Smart, who was a guaranteed Top 5 pick in this upcoming NBA Draft if he would of declared, and Junior LeBryan Nash, who also was a sure lottery pick, this will be of the most entertaining teams to watch in the NCAA.  Even though Smart is a leading choice for Player of the Year, one player is not enough to lead a team throughout March and I believe the Cowboys will barely reach the Sweet 16, if not ousted earlier.

14. Marquette Golden Eagles

Not many believed in Marquette last year.  As an overrated 3-seed I had them falling to the 14-seeded Davidson in the Round of 64, where they trailed most of the game but some how pulled out.  After that first round scare they continue to pull through behind the late game heroics of Vander Blue.  Blue, a Junior, has declared for the NBA Draft which came to a surprise to many and is really the only vital piece that is leaving.  Sporting the 9th best recruiting class, the leadership of upperclassmen like Davante Gardner (11.5 ppg, 5 rpg) and Jamil Wilson (10 ppg, 5 rpg), and the coaching of the balding, badass Buzz Williams, this team will be there deep in March and may even return to the Elite 8.

13. Indiana Hoosiers

A year ago, the Hoosiers were hands down the #1 coming into the 12-13 NCAAB season.  Yet most of the talent that headlined their program last year has decided to go pro, including lottery picks Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller and Senior leaders Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford.  Junior Remy Abell also has left a probable starting spot and decided he will transfer.  Yet sporting the 6th best recruiting class including Noah Vonleh, a dominating big man and the 8th best prospect, a lot of holes will be filled.  Sophomore Yogi Ferrel is the best named guard in America, but also will be the leader of this team that I predict to return to the Sweet 16.

12. Memphis Tigers

Memphis will always be a Top 25 team as long as they are in Conference USA, but this year may be a little different.  Although they lost three top players, including star and possible 1st round Draft choice Adonis Thomas, they are bringing in the 3rd best recruiting class in the nation, including the 17th best prospect Austin Nichols and four other 4-star recruits.  With a returning squad of high energy, nonstop motor guys, including Senior floor general Joe Jackson, the key to this team's success will be on and off court chemistry between these guys.  The talented players are there but it will depend on how well they are as a team.

11. North Carolina Tar Heels

Last season was a disappointment to say the least for Roy Williams and his boys in baby blue.  Even though they had the talent, the team was sub-par compared to their historic past only receiving an 8-seed in the tournament and falling to Kansas in the Round of 32.  With the 13th best recruiting class, including big man Isiah Hicks (16th best prospect), and the return of Sophomore Marcus Paige (9 ppg) and Juniors James Michael McAdoo (14.4 ppg) and P.J. Hairston (14.6ppg), look for this team to be front runners in the ACC and Elite 8 contenders.

10.  Syracuse Orangemen

As long as the Orange have the leadership of Jim Boeheim they will always be a Top 10 team.  His prestige will always bring in blue-chip prospects and as long as he has a big body for the middle of that 2-3 zone, teams will fear their defensive presence.  Look for Junior Rakeem Christmas to step up in that role and prove to be one of the best post players in the Big East.  Seniors Brandon Triche and James Southerland as well as Sophomore Michael Carter-Williams have declared for the Draft, but leading scorer and rebounder C.J. Fair (14.5ppg, 7 rpg) is returning.  Despite Fair's return the Orangemen's postseason success will rely on the play-making effect of Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis, a Jordan Brand and McDonald's All-American.  Boeheim's boys will have a great regular season (as always), but come March I will put them on upset alert due to a lack of play-makers and no clear center-piece for that 2-3 zone defense.

9.  Arizona Wildcats

In the midst of Kentucky picking up almost every top prospect from the incoming Freshman class, coach Sean Miller somehow was able to sign the second best big man, Aaron Gordon, sporting the fourth best recruiting class in '13.  Zona would of been a guaranteed Final Four club if they didn't lose as much as they did - three of their Top 4 scorers are gone as well as role man Grant Jerrett.  Perimeter sharp shooter Nick Johnson (11.5ppg, 40% 3pt) and Duquense transfer point guard T.J. McConnel will have to step up and be the leaders of this squad.  I predict they will run away with the Pac-12 title but come March may have trouble making its way to the Elite 8.

8. Florida Gators

The Gators lost their Top 3 scorers this offseason but still have Senior Patric Young who was the team's best player on their Elite 8 run last March.  Billy Donovan brings in two Top 10 prospects as well as two transfer players that will be eligible this year.  Freshman forward Chris Walker will prove to be the dominating post presence the nation's best defense will need to give Kentucky a run for their SEC title.  I predict the Gators will return to the Elite 8 but due to their lack of supreme talent, not make it much farther than that.

7. Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines had their best season since they paid their players in '93 (sorry for the low blow) falling to Louisville in the National Title.  Player of the Year Trey Burke and Junior play-maker Tim Hardaway Jr. are both gone but the Maize and Blue will not miss a beat.  They bring in the 12th best recruiting class including small forward Zak Irvin and point guard Derrick Walton who will both make immediate impacts coming off of Beilein's bench.  Look for Sophomore Glenn Robinson III to be the team's leading scoring option and  Mitch McGary to continue his hot play from the Tournament.  The 3-point scoring will be there with Spike Albrecht and Nik Stauskas and so will the post play with Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford.  The tough Big Ten play will again work in the Wolverines' favor giving them tough opponents throughout the season.  Even though it hurts me to say this - don't be surprised if the boys in Blue make another run in March to the National Championship.

6. Duke Blue Devils

Duke lost their Top 3 scorers and leaders in Seniors Seth Curry, Mason Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly - but Coach K will find a way to come back.  The Blue Devils have the 5th best recruiting class behind impact player Jabrari Parker and Kansas' High School All-Time Leading Scorer Semi Ojeleye.  Parker will lead this team to the ACC Championship along side the back-court combo of Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon but due to the lack of Senior leadership I am putting Duke on upset alert come March.  Even though you should never count Coach K out, the supreme talent throughout the rest of the NCAA will make it hard for Duke to make it past the Elite 8.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Despite the loss of leading scorer DeShaun Thomas to the NBA Draft, OSU is still a Top 5 team behind point guard Aaron Craft.  Craft, a Senior and a 4th year starter, is the epitome of a Senior leader.  In the era of "one-and-done" Freshman superstars, the true value of Senior leadership is overlooked but I believe this Buckeye squad will flourish behind the play of Craft and his supporting cast from last March's Tournament of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Sam Thompson.  I don't believe they have what it takes to be NCAA Champions, but look for this team in the Big 10 Championship and the Final 4.

4. Louisville Cardinals

Rick Pitino has steadily created a powerhouse in Lousiville.  The Cardinals are last years Tournament Champions and will make another deep run this year.  Although they lost 4-year starter Peyton Siva and dominating post-presence Gorgui Dieng to the NBA, Senior Russ Smith and Final Four MOP Luke Hancock will come back to lead this team.  Despite the lack of star power compared to the likes of Kentucky, their recruiting class is the 7th best of '13, bringing in 4 players that will give depth to 'Ville's bench.  Experience and Senior leadership will result in another Big East title for the Cards' and a sure 1-seed come March.  There hass only been one team to win back-to-back titles in the past 20 years (2006-07 Florida Gators) and unfortunately for Pitino, I am sure his team will not join those ranks.  This is a likely Final 4 squad but the loss of Dieng down low will prove to be huge and the main reason they won't repeat.

3.  Michigan State Spartans

My heart is telling me my Spartans are the best team in the land, but my mind is trying telling me to think before I blog.  Michigan State only lost one player in Senior big man Derrick Nix (10ppg) but brings back Seniors Adreian Payne and Keith Appling, Junior Brendan Dawson, and Big Ten Frosh of the Year Gary Harris.  Izzo only has one incoming recruit after missing out on Jabrari Parker but with such a deep bench it will not have much of an effect.  Look for the big man Payne to develop his outside game even more than last year and as long as Gary Harris' shoulder stays healthy, he is a front-runner for Big 10 Player of the Year.  This is the most seasoned team in the NCAA and I will guaruntee Izzo will lead them to their 17th straight Tournament appearence, their 6th straight Sweet 16 (12th time in past 17 years), their 7th Final Four in 16 years, and possibly a Championship.

2.  Kansas Jayhawks

Bill Self lost a lot of talent from last years squad including big man Jeff Withey, scoring machine Elijah Johnson, afro-thunder Kevin Young, leading minute man Travis Releford, and Ben McLemore, who will be a Top 3 pick in this years NBA Draft.  With THAT much talent gone many thought Kansas would barely make the NCAA Tournament, but then you see what they brought in - Self scored the #1 incoming recruit, Andrew Wiggins, and the 2nd best recruiting class.  Wiggins will post one of the best Freshman seasons we have saw since Kevin Durant and could of possibly been the #1 pick in the NBA Draft if they still let High Schoolers declare.  With Freshmen including two-guard Wayne Seldon (12th best recruit), center Joel Embiid (25th), sharp shooting forward Brannen Greene (29th), and point guard Connor Frankamp (34th), this team will make a run to the Final 4 but I believe their downfall will be too much weight on Wiggins shoulders and a lack of experience.

1.  Kentucky Wildcats

THEY'RE BAAAAAACK!  John Calipari has been known for his prolific recruiting classes since his days at Memphis and this year may be the best he has had. The hands-down #1 recruiting class of 2013 which includes five of the Top 11 recruits including the best PF Julius Randle, the best center Dakari Johnson, twin back-court Andrew and Aaron Harrison, and small forward James Young.  Although last years team failed to make the NCAA Tournament and lost in the first round of the NIT, they are bringing back key players to lead this group of Freshmen.  Sophomores Alex Poythress (8th best recruit in 2012) and Willie Cauley-Stein (40th in 2012) return to help this class not make the same mistake they did.  Throughout my rankings I preached the importance of Senior leadership but the Wildcats are a serious exception. This level of talent and depth will trump  experience this year and Kentucky will go on to win their 2nd National Championship in the past three years.

All Recruit Rankings are from Yahoo's Rivals Basketball.

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